The volume of real estate investment will be around 13.000 million this year

The volume of real estate investment will be around 13.000 million this year

An increase in activity is expected both in offices and in retail

A "very active" year. This is how it will be this year in terms of volume of real estate investment, as indicated by CBRE. The consultant's estimates encrypt investment in the sector in about 13.000 million euros by 2022, as pointed out in the presentation of the Real Estate Market Outlook 2022, prepared by CBRE Research, highlighting in this area the hotel sectors, living and logistics industry, just as it happened in 2021. In addition, "we think there will be an increase in activity both in offices and in retail," says Lola Martínez Brioso, Director of Research at CBRE Spain.

Without leaving aside risks such as the new variants of the covid or the prolongation of inflationary tensions, from the consultancy they point out the increase in consumption, European funds and the increase in tourism as engines, both for the economy and for the real estate sector. This year, "we expect the recovery to continue to consolidate from the point of view of investment, where we see a lot of appetite and liquidity," says Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero, president of CBRE Spain.

These forecasts come after in 2021, Real estate investment reached 12.700 million in the Spanish market, which was 33% more than in 2020 and 2% higher than in 2019. The hotelier and the living accounted for 46% of the investment, followed by offices (19%) and the logistics industry (17%). In the healthcare segment, there was an increase of 8%, "we think that it is already setting a trend for the coming years as a sector that is going to go further," says Martínez Brioso.

The living, which due to social, cultural and demographic changes shows an evolution where factors such as experience and the community take on great importance, shows growth forecasts.

Looking forward to this year, student residences will add more than 9.000 beds, rental housing will increase by more than 20.000 units until 2024, beds of coliving will grow by more than 4.000 until 2023 and  senior living will gain ground in the coming years, according to the consultant.

The sale of homes will decrease by 4,9% in 2022

For the sale of homes, from CBRE expect a 4,9% decline in the number of transactions forecast for 2022around 560.000/580.000 operations, still above 2019 levels. This is explained because 2021 was an "exceptional" year in which more than 600.000 transactions were registered due to the impact of covid in 2020. As soon as to the price of housing, they foresee an increase of 4,6%, while in new construction visas they estimate that more than 100.000 will be granted in 2022.

The hotel segment appears as another very active market, where 2021 monopolized more than 3.000 million investment. The demand in hotels has been recovering, although at different speeds, supported by the national traveller. "For the next two years, we believe that the market will recover, the international traveler, especially from outside Europe, will take longer to return, but in 2022, in general terms, it will be positive, although the recovery In total, we will not see it until 2023/2024, ”says the Director of Research at CBRE Spain.

In the case of the logistics industry, the sector has unstoppable growth. Last year, 2,7 million m2 were contracted nationwideDhighlighting the rebound in Catalonia as well as important operations in Valencia or Zaragoza. The forecasts for 2022 are also positive, although a certain decrease is expected compared to the record levels of 2021 in terms of take up. Between the sectors of ecommerce that are going to grow the most are food, restoration and delivered, on the one hand, and fashion and footwear, on the other.

In consecuense, The consultant estimates that 1,6 million m2 could be added to the stock in 2022 in the Central and Catalonia areas, not all of which are under construction, to meet the demand of retailers, supermarkets Third Party Logistics y ecommerce

More activity in offices and retail

This year will be a year of consolidation for the retail sector, in which traffic and sales figures will be seen at levels close to those of 2019, according to CBRE forecasts. At the end of December, the influx was 20% more than in 2020, while sales showed an increase of 12% compared to November 2020, although both metrics were below pre-pandemic levels.

A 50% increase in the penetration of the ecommerce in the next 5 years

The consolidation of omnichannel, which has been reinforced by the pandemic, will continue to be key, as will the strategies to improve channel connection online and y offline It will be a priority for companies. And it is that CBRE estimates point to a 50% increase in penetration ecommerce in the next 5 years, up to 14 out of every 100 sales.

The office market has seen an increase in occupancy and take up. Last year saw a recovery in hiring, more prominent in Barcelona than in Madrid in percentage terms, and in the face of this exercise both markets are expected to continue the upward trend. In this sense, technology is going to be one of the sectors that is going to lead that demand, in addition to others such as the professional services sector, the public sector or educational centers.

Regarding supply, after months of increase in both cities it is expected that in Madrid they are close to peaking and begin to fall this year, while in Barcelona there is a greater volume of supply under construction therefore, unemployment in the city of Barcelona is expected to grow, but to a lesser extent than in previous months. The quality offer in buildings Grade A, new or rehabilitated, will be the most requested.

For its part, the segment of data center It is a market in "full expansion", they point out from CBRE. According to their figures, in two years the installed power will double, going from 101 MW to 180 MW. «If the projects in progress and others that are underway are completed, we will have 600 MW in 2025«

Source: The Economist #soyinmoogler

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